Section outline

  • Lecture:

    Two disease needle stick example, independence, Bayes theorem, review of sensitivity, specificity, NPV, PPV, binomial risk models, expectation, variance, entropy, likelihood, partition of variance, variance inflation, conditional expectation.

    Faculty:  Travis C. Porco

    Location:      Mission Hall 1108

    • Required Reading:

      Binomial distribution

      Conditional probability

      Independence

    • Optional Reading:

      Introduction to Probability

      Books available to read at Sarah's desk (2667) at Mission Hall, please do not remove from Mission Hall & return to desk when not reading.

      • An Elementary Introduction to the Theory of Probability (Dover Books on Mathematics)
      • The Theoretical Minimum: What You Need to Know to Start Doing Physics, calculus chapter, if calculus review needed

      [The books haven't arrived yet, but will arrive next week.]

    • SarahNotesLecture1 File
    • Calculus Review -- Read by next class if needed File
      Not available unless: Your ID number contains 02

    • Assignment:

      There are 11 total homeworks due Fridays before 8:45 AM. Homework can be turned in to Sarah or by email to sarah.ackley@ucsf.edu (cc travis.porco@ucsf.edu). For all homework assignments, please hand-write equations or typeset them using Latex or Word equation editor (do not turn in unformatted inline equations, e.g. x^2 + y^2 =1). Please complete all numbered problems in the document below.

      Grading: 80% and above is an A. 

      Note on problem 3: You should be able to get both an upper and lower bound for the specificity. You should be able to write f as a function of theta, phi, and s. Then s can range from 0 to 1. Plugging in 0 and 1 for s should correspond to your lower and upper bounds for f since f is linear and increasing in s.

    • homework and coursenotes1 File

    • Assignment Answer Key (Access restricted to registered students):

    • homework1 File