Section outline

  • Lecture:
    Lecture narrative description here

    Faculty: 

    Location:      Mission Hall 1108

    • Optional Reading:

      Books available to read at Sarah's desk (2667) at Mission Hall, please do not remove from Mission Hall & return to desk when not reading.

      • An Elementary Introduction to the Theory of Probability (Dover Books on Mathematics)
      • The Theoretical Minimum: What You Need to Know to Start Doing Physics, calculus chapter, if calculus review needed

    • Assignment: 

      course notes 6: 5, 6 (turn in five graphs), 7 

      Extra problem: Roll your own chain binomial model!

      Choose a new chain binomial model that is in some manner different than the either the Reed-Frost process or the Greenwood model.  In the Reed-Frost chain binomial process we use a binomial with x(t) susceptible and Y(t) infectives with risk of infection r(t)=1-(1-p)^Y(t).  If instead, r(t)= q when y is greater than zero and zero otherwise, this is the Greenwood chain binomial model.  

      Make up your own chain binomial model with a new risk function.  Discuss the interpretation and implications of your model.  Do you want your risk to increase, decrease, increase more slowly vs. the Reed-Frost model?  Where might your model be relevant in practice?

    • homework and coursenotes6 File

    • Assignment Answer Key (Access restricted to registered students):