Section outline

  • Lecture:

    Two disease needle stick example, independence, Bayes theorem, review of sensitivity, specificity, NPV, PPV, binomial risk models, expectation, variance, entropy, likelihood, partition of variance, variance inflation, conditional expectation.

    Faculty:  Travis C. Porco

    Location:      Mission Hall 1108

    • Required Reading: 

      Links will be update later tonight 1/6/2020

      Binomial distribution

      Conditional probability

      Independence

    • Optional Reading:

      Introduction to Probability

      Books available to read at Sarah's desk (2655) at Mission Hall, please do not remove from Mission Hall & return to desk when not reading.

      • An Elementary Introduction to the Theory of Probability (Dover Books on Mathematics)
      • The Theoretical Minimum: What You Need to Know to Start Doing Physics, calculus chapter, if calculus review needed

      [The books haven't arrived yet, but will arrive next week.]

    • SarahNotesLecture1 File
    • Calculus Review -- Read by next class if needed File
      Not available unless: Your ID number contains 02

    • Assignment:

      There are 11 total homeworks due Fridays before class. Homework can be turned in to Rae or by email to rae.wannier@ucsf.edu (cc travis.porco@ucsf.edu). For all homework assignments, please hand-write equations or typeset them using Latex or Word equation editor (do not turn in unformatted inline equations, e.g. x^2 + y^2 =1). 

      Grading: 80% and above is an A. One letter grade off per week for late homework (i.e. homework greater than zero but fewer than 7 days late gets a maximum of 80%, homework greater than 7 days late and less than 14 days late gets a maximum of 70%, etc.). 

      Special Instructions for this assignment:

      There are 20 problems, which was too long last year. The completion of 9 required questions is for full credit, completion of the remaining questions will be extra credit.

      Required problems: 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 11, 12, 19, 20

      Note on problem 3: You should be able to get both an upper and lower bound for the specificity. You should be able to write f as a function of theta, phi, and s. Then s can range from 0 to 1. Plugging in 0 and 1 for s should correspond to your lower and upper bounds for f since f is linear and increasing in s.

      This assignment is due January 20th. 

      Also, send Travis (travis.porco@ucsf.edu) an email briefly introducing yourself and topics you're most interested in. 

    • homework and coursenotes1 File

    • Assignment Answer Key (Access restricted to registered students):