Section outline

  • Lecture 5: Evaluating Risk Predictions
    Risk predictions: differences from diagnostic tests; calibration and discrimination; comparing predictions; net benefit calculation; decision curves.

    Faculty:  Michael Kohn

    Location:  Mission Hall 1400

    • Session Slides:

    • PrognosticTests10-12-2017withLogarithmsLatest.pptx File

    • Session Audio/Video Recording (Access restricted to registered students):

    • Watch URL
      Not available unless: You belong to a group in Registered Students Only
    • .mp4 URL
      Not available unless: You belong to M Laker

    • Required Reading:

      EBD-1, pages 138-150 on Prognostic Tests (posted below as a pdf)

      Vickers et al. Net benefit approaches to the evaluation of prediction models, molecular markers, and diagnostic tests. BMJ 2016;352:i6.

    • EBD-1_p138-155_PrognosticTests.pdf File
    • Vickers_Net_Benefit_BMJ_2016.pdf File

    • Optional Reading:

    • Vickers 2006 Med Decis Making Decision Curve Analysis File
      Not available unless: You belong to a group in Registered Students Only
    • Steyerberg_2014_Better_Prediction_Models File
      Not available unless: You belong to a group in Registered Students Only
    • Kerr 2015 Decision Curves File