EPI 268: Econometric Methods for Causal Inference (Winter 2019)

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    Econometrics for Causal Inference EPI 268 Winter 2019 (2 or 3 units). Course Director: Justin White, PhD. Assistant Professor, Institute for Health Policy Studies

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• Select section Wednesday, January 9, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

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  Wednesday, January 9, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

  Lecture: Causal Inference and Regression

  Topics: course introduction, RCTs as gold standard, potential outcomes framework, conditional expectation function, regression notation, regression mechanics, interpreting coefficients and effect sizes

  Faculty:  Justin White
  

  Location: MH 1407

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  • Select activity Required Reading:Mastering Metrics (MM), Introduct...

    Required Reading:

    • Mastering Metrics (MM), Introduction
    • MM, Ch. 1
    • MM, Ch. 2

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  • Select activity Optional Reading:Holland PW (1986). Statistics an...

    Optional Reading:

    • Holland PW (1986). Statistics and causal inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81(396), 945–960.

    • Imbens GW, Rubin DB (2015). Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences: An Introduction. Cambridge University Press. Ch. 1-3.
      

    • Rubin DB (1986). Comment: Which ifs have causal answers. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81(396): 961–962.

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• Select section Wednesday, January 16, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

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  Wednesday, January 16, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

  Lecture: Regression Adjustment and Nonparametric Regression
  

  Topics: regression adjustment, omitted variable bias, nonparametric regression, introduction to Stata, Monte Carlo simulation (bias analysis)

  Faculty:  Justin White
  

  Location: MH 1407

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  • Select activity Required Reading:Freedman DA (1991). Statistical ...

    Required Reading:

    • Freedman DA (1991). Statistical models and shoe leather. Sociological Methodology 21, 291–313.
    • Baum CF (2011). Introduction to Stata. Presentation. August 2011.

    • Baum CF (2007). Monte Carlo Simulation in Stata. Presentation. July 2007.

      
      

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  • Select activity Optional Reading:Arnold BF, Hogan DR, Colford JM,...

    Optional Reading:

    • Arnold BF, Hogan DR, Colford JM, Hubbard AE (2011). Simulation methods to estimate design power: An overview for applied research. BMC Medical Research Methodology 11(94): 1-10.
    • Kennedy P (2008). A Guide to Econometrics, 8^th Edition. Wiley-Blackwell. Ch. 2.
      

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• Select section Wednesday, January 23, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

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  Wednesday, January 23, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

  Lecture: The Propensity Score and Matching Methods

  Topics: Estimating the propensity score, assessing overlap, propensity score regression, propensity score blocking, inverse probability weighting, matching estimators
  

  Faculty:  Justin White

  
  Location: MH 1407

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  • Select activity Required Reading:Stuart EA (2010). Matching metho...

    Required Reading:

    • Stuart EA (2010). Matching methods for causal inference: A review and a look forward. Statistical Science 25(1): 1–21.

    • Prochaska JJ, Michalek AK, Brown-Johnson C, Daza EJ, Baiocchi M, Anzai N, Rogers A, Grigg M, Chieng A. Likelihood of Unemployed Smokers vs Nonsmokers Attaining Reemployment in a One-Year Observational Study. JAMA Internal Medicine 176(5): 662–670.

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  • Select activity Optional Reading:Gum PA, Thamilarasan M, Watanabe...

    Optional Reading:

    • Gum PA, Thamilarasan M, Watanabe J, Blackstone EH, Lauer MS (2001). Aspirin use and all-cause mortality among patients being evaluated for known or suspected coronary artery disease: A propensity analysis. JAMA 286(10): 1187–1194.

    • Hirano K, Imbens GW (2001). Estimation of causal effects using propensity score weighting: An application to data on right heart catheterization. Health Services & Outcomes Research Methodology 2: 259–278.

    • Imbens GW (2015). Matching methods in practice: Three examples.” Journal of Human Resources 50: 373–419.

    • King G, Nielsen R (2018). Why propensity scores should not be used for matching. Political Analysis. Forthcoming.
      

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• Select section Wednesday, January 30, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

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  Wednesday, January 30, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

  Lecture: Difference-in-Differences I

  Topics: introduction to panel data, difference-in-differences analysis, DiD assumptions, clustering standard errors in DiD

  Faculty:  Justin White
  

  Location: MH 1407

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  • Select activity Required Reading:MM, Ch. 5.1Rajaram R, et al. (201...

    Required Reading:

    • MM, Ch. 5.1
    • Rajaram R, et al. (2014). Association of the 2011 ACGME resident duty hour reform with general surgery patient outcomes and with resident examination performance. JAMA 312(22): 2374-2384.

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  • Select activity Optional Reading:Bertrand M, Duflo E, Mullainatha...

    Optional Reading:

    • Bertrand M, Duflo E, Mullainathan S (2004). How much should we trust difference-in-differences estimates? Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(1): 249-275.

    • Ryan AM, Burgess Jr., JF, Dimick JB (2015). Why we should not be indifferent to specification choices for difference-in-differences. Health Services Research 50(4): 1211-1235.

    • Wherry LR, Miller S (2016). Early coverage, access, utilization, and health effects associated with the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansions: A quasi-experimental study. Annals of Internal Medicine 164(12): 795-803.
      

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• Select section Wednesday, February 6, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

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  Wednesday, February 6, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

  Lecture: Difference-in-Differences II

  Topics: DiD analyses in Stata, triple differences estimator, case studies with synthetic controls

  Faculty:  Justin White
  

  Location: MH 1407

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  • Select activity Required Reading:Joyce T (2009). A simple test of...

    Required Reading:

    • Joyce T (2009). A simple test of abortion and crime. The Review of Statistics and Economics 91(1): 112–123.

    • Rudolph KE, Stuart EA, Vernick JS, Webster DW (2015). Association between Connecticut’s permit-to-purchase handgun law and homicides. American Journal of Public Health, 105(8): e49-e54.

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  • Select activity Optional Reading:Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller...

    Optional Reading:

    • Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association 105(490), 493–505.

    • Basu S, Rehkopf DH, Siddiqi A, Glymour MM, Kawachi I. (2016). Health behaviors, mental health, and health care utilization among single mothers after welfare reforms in the 1990s. American Journal of Epidemiology 183(6): 531-538.

    • Gruber J (1994). The incidence of mandated maternity benefits. American Economic Review 84(3): 622-641.

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  • Select activity Assignment: Problem Set #1 due

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    Problem Set #1 due
    

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• Select section Wednesday, February 13, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

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  Wednesday, February 13, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

  Lecture: Fixed Effects

  Topics: dummy variable version, first difference estimator, deviations from means estimator, FE vs. random effects, specification tests

  Faculty:  Justin White
  

  Location: MH 1407

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  • Select activity Required Reading:MM, Ch. 5.2White JS, Hamad R, Li ...

    Required Reading:

    • MM, Ch. 5.2

    • White JS, Hamad R, Li X, Basu S, Ohlsson H, Sundquist J, Sundquist (2016). Long-term effects of neighbourhood deprivation on diabetes risk: Quasi-experimental evidence from a refugee dispersal policy in Sweden. The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology 4(6): 517–524.

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  • Select activity Optional Reading:Allison, PD (2009). Fixed Effect...

    Optional Reading:

    • Allison, PD (2009). Fixed Effects Regression Models. SAGE Publications. Ch 2.

    • Colen CG, Ramey DM. Is breast truly best? Estimating the effects of breastfeeding on long-term child health and wellbeing in the United States using sibling comparisons. Social Science & Medicine 109 (2014): 55-65.

    • Cylus J, Glymour MM, Avendano M (2014). Do generous unemployment benefit programs reduce suicide rates? A state fixed-effect analysis covering 1968-2008. American Journal of Epidemiology 180(1):45-52.
      

    • Currie J, Thomas D (1995). Medical care for children: public insurance, private insurance, and racial differences in utilization. Journal of Human Resources 30(1): 135-162.

    • Frankenberg E (1995). The effects of access to health care on infant mortality in Indonesia. Health Transition Review 5: 143-163.

    • Wooldridge JM (2013). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, 5^th Edition. South-Western College Publishers. Ch. 13, 14

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  • Select activity Assignment: Empirical Paper Proposal Due

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• Select section Wednesday, February 20, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

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  Wednesday, February 20, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

  Lecture: Instrumental Variables

  Topics: IV intuition, IV assumptions, two-stage least squares, local average treatment effects, IV specification testing

  Faculty:  Justin White 

  Location: MH 1407

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  • Select activity Required Reading:MM, Ch. 3Angrist JD (1990). Lifet...

    Required Reading:

    • MM, Ch. 3
    • Angrist JD (1990). Lifetime earnings and the Vietnam era draft lottery: Evidence from social security administrative records. American Economic Review 80(3): 313-336.

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  • Select activity Optional Reading:Angrist JD, Imbens GW, Rubin DB ...

    Optional Reading:

    • Angrist JD, Imbens GW, Rubin DB (1996). Identification of causal effects using instrumental variables. Journal of the American Statistical Association 91(434), 444–455.

    • Baiocchi M, Cheng J, Small DS. (2014). Instrumental variable methods for causal inference. Statistics in Medicine 33: 2297-2340.

    • Glymour MM, Tchetgen Tchetgen EJ, Robins JM (2012). Credible Mendelian randomization studies: approaches for evaluating the instrumental variable assumptions. American Journal of Epidemiology 175(4): 332-9.

    • Harris KM, Remler DK (1998). Who is the marginal patient? Understanding instrumental variables estimates of treatment effects. Health Services Research 33(5): 1337-1360.

    • McClellan M, McNeil BJ, Newhouse JP (1994). Does more intensive treatment of acute myocardial infarction in the elderly reduce mortality? Analysis using instrumental variables. JAMA 272: 859-866.

    • Pizer SD (2015). Falsification testing of instrumental variables methods for comparative effectiveness research. Health Services Research. 51(2): 790-811.

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• Select section Wednesday, February 27, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

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  Wednesday, February 27, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

  Lecture: Regression Discontinuity Designs I

  Topics: RD graphical intuition, forcing variable, sharp RD, sharp RD estimation

  Faculty:  Justin White
  

  Location: MH 1407

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  • Select activity Required Reading:MM, Ch. 4.1Bor J, Moscoe E, Bärni...

    Required Reading:

    • MM, Ch. 4.1
    • Bor J, Moscoe E, Bärnighausen T (2015). Three approaches to causal inference in regression discontinuity designs. Epidemiology 26(2): e28-30.
    • Hansen B. (2015). Punishment and deterrence: Evidence from drunk driving. American Economic
      Review 105(4): 1581-1617.

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  • Select activity Optional Reading:Green DP, Leong TY, Kern HL, Gerb...

    Optional Reading:

    • Green DP, Leong TY, Kern HL, Gerber AS, Larimer CW (2009). Testing the accuracy of regression
      discontinuity analysis using experimental benchmarks. Political Analysis 17(4), 400–417.

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  • Select activity Assignment: Problem Set #2 due

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    Problem Set #2 due
    

• Select section Wednesday, March 6, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

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  Wednesday, March 6, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

  Lecture: Regression Discontinuity Designs II

  Topics: Fuzzy RD, fuzzy RD estimation, RD specification testing, RD in Stata

  Faculty:  Justin White
  

  Location: MH 1407

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  • Select activity Required Reading:MM, Ch. 4.2Lee DS, Lemieux T (201...

    Required Reading:

    • MM, Ch. 4.2
      
    • Lee DS, Lemieux T (2010). Regression discontinuity designs in economics. Journal of Economic Literature 48: 281–355.
    • Miller G, Pinto, D, Vera-Hernández M. (2013). Risk Protection, Service Use,
      and Health Outcomes under Colombia’s Health Insurance Program for the Poor. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. 5(4): 61–91.
      

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  • Select activity Optional Reading:Card D, Dobkin C, Maestas N (2009...

    Optional Reading:

    • Card D, Dobkin C, Maestas N (2009). Does Medicare save lives? Quarterly Journal of Economics
      124(2): 597-636.
    • Imbens GW, Lemieux T (2008). Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice. Journal of
      Econometrics 142(2), 615–635.

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• Select section Wednesday, March 13, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

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  Wednesday, March 13, 2019, 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM

  Lecture: Student Presentations

  Faculty:  Justin White
  

  Location: MH 1407
• Select section Wednesday, March 20, 2019

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  Wednesday, March 20, 2019

  
  

  • Select activity Assignment: Empirical Paper dueProblem Set #3 due

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    • Problem Set #3 due