EPI 204: Clinical Epidemiology (Fall 2014)
Section outline
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EPI 204 Fall 2014 (3 units).
Course Director: Thomas B. Newman, MD, MPH.
Professor, Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Pediatrics.
Course Co-Director: Michael Kohn, MD, MPP.
Professor, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
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Lecture: Course overview, the diagnostic process, and measures of interobserver agreement
Introduction to the course and how we will teach it; how the reason for making a diagnosis affects the optimal classification scheme; concordance, unweighted Kappa, linear and quadratic weighted Kappa
Faculty: Tom Newman
Location: China Basin 6702 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review of Chapter 1 problems and "Kappa Game"Faculty: Stephanie Christenson, Erik McDonald, Jacob Robson, Meera Sheffrin, Christine Dehlendorf, Michael Kohn, Tom Newman, Emily Perito
Location: Christenson CB 6702, McDonald CB 5721, Robson CB 5759, Sheffrin CB 6601, Dehlendorf Online -
Lecture: Dichotomous Tests
Sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, prior and posterior probability; 2x2 table method for getting posterior probability; probability and odds; likelihood ratios, the likelihood ratio slide rule, false-positive and false negative confusion; use of X-graphs to understand testing and treatment thresholdsFaculty: Thomas Newman
Location: China Basin 6702 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 2 Problems (Epi204 HW2 2012.doc)Faculty: Stephanie Christenson, Erik McDonald, Jacob Robson, Meera Sheffrin, Christine Dehlendorf, Michael Kohn, Tom Newman, Emily Perito
Location: Christenson CB 6702, McDonald CB 5721, Robson CB 5759, Sheffrin CB 6601, Dehlendorf Online -
Lecture: Multilevel and continuous tests
ROC Curves, multilevel likelihood ratios and the relationship between them; how making multilevel tests dichotomous wastes information; choosing cutoffs, the Walking Man approach to ROC.Faculty: Michael Kohn
Location: China Basin 6702 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 3 problems (HW Set 3 Epi 204_2012.doc)Faculty: Stephanie Christenson, Erik McDonald, Jacob Robson, Meera Sheffrin, Christine Dehlendorf, Michael Kohn, Tom Newman, Emily Perito
Location: Christenson CB 6702, McDonald CB 5721, Robson CB 5759, Sheffrin CB 6601, Dehlendorf Online -
Lecture: Studies of Diagnostic Tests
Common biases: incorporation bias, verification bias, double gold-standard bias, spectrum bias; Prevalence, spectrum bias and nonindependence; checklist vs systematic approach to critical appraisal of studies of diagnostic testsFaculty: Thomas Newman
Location: China Basin 6702 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 4 problemsFaculty: Stephanie Christenson, Erik McDonald, Jacob Robson, Meera Sheffrin, Christine Dehlendorf, Michael Kohn, Tom Newman, Emily Perito
Location: Christenson CB 6702, McDonald CB 5721, Robson CB 5759, Sheffrin CB 6601, Dehlendorf Online
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Lecture: Screening Tests
Need for a more critical approach for screening tests, risk factor vs disease screening; biases in observational studies of screening: lead time bias, length time bias, volunteer bias, stage migration bias, pseudodisease; randomized trials of screeningFaculty: Thomas Newman
Location: China Basin 6702 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 5 problemsFaculty: Stephanie Christenson, Erik McDonald, Jacob Robson, Meera Sheffrin, Christine Dehlendorf, Michael Kohn, Tom Newman, Emily Perito
Location: Christenson CB 6702, McDonald CB 5721, Robson CB 5759, Sheffrin CB 6601, Dehlendorf Online -
Lecture: Prognostic tests and prediction rules
Prognostic Tests: differences from diagnostic tests; calibration and discrimination; comparing predictions; value of prognostic information; importance of validation separate from derivation.Faculty: Michael Kohn
Location: MH 1400 -
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Lecture:
Part 1: Combining tests/diagnostic models
Importance of test non-independence; recursive partitioning; logistic regression.
Part 2: Quantifying the benefits and harms of treatments using randomized trials
RCT checklist; importance of baseline incidence; measures of effect size: Relative risk (RR), relative risk reduction (RRR), Odds ratio (OR), Absolute risk reduction (ARR), Number needed to treat (NNT); "Back of the Envelope Cost Effectiveness Analysis"Faculty: Michael Kohn
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 7 & 8 problemsFaculty: Stephanie Christenson, Erik McDonald, Jacob Robson, Meera Sheffrin, Christine Dehlendorf, Michael Kohn, Tom Newman, Emily Perito
Location: Christenson MH-1105, McDonald MH-1106, Robson MH-1107, Sheffrin MH-1108 -
Lecture: Alternatives to randomized trials
When randomized trials are and may not be needed; instrumental variables and natural experiments; measuring additional predictor and outcome variables to estimate bias; propensity scores.Faculty: Thomas Newman
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 9 problemsFaculty: Stephanie Christenson, Erik McDonald, Jacob Robson, Meera Sheffrin, Christine Dehlendorf, Michael Kohn, Tom Newman, Emily Perito
Location: Christenson MH-1105, McDonald MH-1106, Robson MH-1107, Sheffrin MH-1108, Dehlendorf Online -
Lecture: P-values and confidence intervals
Introduction and justification: why this Bayesian stuff is important and why we think you can handle it; what P-values and confidence intervals don' t mean; what they do mean; confidence intervals for negative studies and for proportions with small numeratorsFaculty: Thomas Newman
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 10 problemsFaculty: Stephanie Christenson, Erik McDonald, Jacob Robson, Meera Sheffrin, Christine Dehlendorf, Michael Kohn, Tom Newman, Emily Perito
Location: Christenson MH-1105, McDonald MH-1106, Robson MH-1107, Sheffrin MH-1108, Dehlendorf Online -
Lecture: Challenges for Evidence-based Diagnosis and Course Review
Criticisms of evidence-based medicine; stories and statistics; psychology of medical decision making: heuristics used to estimate probability. Course review.Faculty: Thomas Newman
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Newman, TB. The Power of Stories over Statistics.BMJ. 2003;327(7429):1424-7 File
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Newman TB, Maisels, MJ. Less Aggressive Treatment of Neonatal Jaundice and Reports of Kernicterus: Lessons About Practice Guidelines. Pediatrics 2000;105:242 File
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Newman TB, Johnston BD, Grossman DC. Effects and costs of requiring child-restraint systems for young children traveling on commercial airplanes.Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2003 Oct;157(10):969-74 File
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Bishai D. Hearts and Minds and Child Restraints on Airplanes. Arch Peds Adol Med 2003;157:953 File
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Newman TB. Universal Bilirubin Screening, Guidelines and Evidence. Pediatrics 2009 File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 11 problemsFaculty: Stephanie Christenson, Erik McDonald, Jacob Robson, Meera Sheffrin, Christine Dehlendorf, Michael Kohn, Tom Newman, Emily Perito
Location: Christenson MH-1105, McDonald MH-1106, Robson MH-1107, Sheffrin MH-1108, Dehlendorf Online -
Lecture: Final Examination Review
Faculty: Thomas NewmanLocation: Mission Hall 1400
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Example Date format: Tuesday, July 30, 2013; 1:15 PM - 2:45 PM
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Lecture narrative description hereActivity options are: Lecture, Small Group Discussion Section, Computer Lab, Journal Club, and Office Hours. Lectures will always have titles but other activities typically won’t. For online activities, add (Times and dates for online sessions may differ)
Faculty: (examples: Mark Pletcher; Mark Pletcher and Jeff Martin)
Location: (e.g., China Basin 6702; or, for small groups: Martin CB 6702, Cheng CB 6601, Jones CB 5740, and Smith CB 5601 ) -
Example Date format: Tuesday, July 30, 2013; 1:15 PM - 2:45 PM
<Activity> < optional: insert title>
Lecture narrative description hereActivity options are: Lecture, Small Group Discussion Section, Computer Lab, Journal Club, and Office Hours. Lectures will always have titles but other activities typically won’t. For online activities, add (Times and dates for online sessions may differ)
Faculty: (examples: Mark Pletcher; Mark Pletcher and Jeff Martin)
Location: (e.g., China Basin 6702; or, for small groups: Martin CB 6702, Cheng CB 6601, Jones CB 5740, and Smith CB 5601 ) -
Example Date format: Tuesday, July 30, 2013; 1:15 PM - 2:45 PM
<Activity> < optional: insert title>
Lecture narrative description hereActivity options are: Lecture, Small Group Discussion Section, Computer Lab, Journal Club, and Office Hours. Lectures will always have titles but other activities typically won’t. For online activities, add (Times and dates for online sessions may differ)
Faculty: (examples: Mark Pletcher; Mark Pletcher and Jeff Martin)
Location: (e.g., China Basin 6702; or, for small groups: Martin CB 6702, Cheng CB 6601, Jones CB 5740, and Smith CB 5601 )