The causes and consequences of demographic transition
Canning presents Dyson’s views regarding mortality transition being an underlying cause of a fertility decline, despite external influences (i.e., policy, contraception use, education, ideation, and culture) followed by economic growth and urbanization. However, Canning argues differently various scenarios in which contraceptive methods and differential returns of education played a key role. Furthermore, he contextualizes demographic changes specific to each country and various factors. I would be interested to see how mortality increases (i.e., COVID-19 pandemic) could influence fertility changes since different populations (also within i.e. racial/ethnic differences) have experienced economic losses since according to Dyson’s academic work you could argue that fertility rates may increase.
The Idea of Demographic Transition and the Study of Fertility Change: A Critical Intellectual History
Szreter’s recounts fertility changes since World War II by attributing changes to historical accounts of economic development, policy priorities, family planning services, and other institutional/political contexts. Arguing against the overuse of the notions of “fertility” and “demographic” transitions which overstate fertility changes that happened at the community level. Which are largely driven and mediated by a myriad of factors and contextualized by the historical and present social environment.
Overall, similar to Carolyn’s point I am surprised to hear that there have been ongoing arguments on this topic. When I took an introductory demography course (approx. 5 years ago), the nuances behind the immediate decline in fertility post mortality decline were not further debated. This type of work should extend beyond high and middle-income countries given that these changes are subject to many different complex systems.