Section outline

  • LGD: Risk Prediction Models
    Prediction models: differences from diagnostic tests; calibration and discrimination; comparing predictions; value of prognostic information.

    Faculty:  Michael Kohn

    • Lecture Slides:

    • PPT for 2021 Lecture 5 on Risk Prediction File

      The 2021 Lecture 5 on risk prediction is pre-recorded.  The 2019 lecture was recorded live as given on 10/17/2019.

      We are making both the 2019 and 2021 lectures available to you.

      This is the PPT for the 2021 version.  The notation changes that I hand-wrote while recording the lecture have been incorporated into the slides.  Also, the rounding problems have been corrected.

    • PPT for 2019 Lecture 5 Risk Prediction File

      This is the PPT for the 2019 version of Lecture 5 on Risk Prediction Models as given live on 10/17/2019.  

    • Lecture Audio/Video Recording (Access restricted to registered students):

    • 2021 Lecture 5 Segment 1 - Calibration (33:16) Media Resource
      Not available unless: You belong to Registered students only
    • Supplement to EBD-2 Chapter 6 on Calibration Error (Word document) File

      This is the material covered in Lecture 5 Segment 1.

    • 2021 Lecture 5 Segment 2 -- Net Benefit and Decision Curves (40:50) Media Resource
      Not available unless: You belong to Registered students only
    • 2019 Lecture 5 Risk Model -- Recorded Live on 10/17/2019 (1:26:25) Media Resource
      Not available unless: You belong to Registered students only

    • Large Group Discussion (Access restricted to registered students):
      Brief formal review of lecture followed by question and answer discussion. Recorded lecture should be viewed prior to this session.

    • Zoom Recording of Live Large Group Discussion (Access restricted to registered students):

    • Zoom Recording of Large Group 10/19/2021 Media Resource
      Not available unless: You belong to Registered students only

    • Required Reading:

      EBD-2, Chapter 6

    • Supplement to EBD-2 Chapter 6 on Calibration Error (Word document) File

      Duplicate posting under Required Reading.  This is the material covered in Lecture 5, Segment 1.

    • Optional Reading:

    • Vickers_Net_Benefit_BMJ_2016.pdf File
      Not available unless: Your ID number contains 02
    • Kerr 2015 Decision Curves File
      Not available unless: Your ID number contains 02

    • Assignments: Homework assignment #5, Evaluating Risk Predictions

    • Problem Set 5 -- Risk Prediction File

    • Assignment due date:  10/21/21 at 1:15 PM

    • Problem Set #5 Upload Assignment


    • Assignment Answer Key (Access restricted to registered students):

    • Pset 5 Risk Prediction Key File
      Not available unless: You belong to Registered students only
    • MeteorologistsBrier.do File

      Stata do-file to create a dataset with meteorologist predictions and (rain) outcomes for HW#6, Problem 1, then run Brier command.

    • MeteorologistFrequencies.xls File
    • meteorologists.dta File