EPI 203: Epidemiologic Methods I (Fall 2016)
Section outline
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Lecture: Course Introduction; Study Design
Distinction between designs where the unit of observation is a group of individuals vs. the individual; ecologic fallacy; types of studies with observations on the individual; cohort study as gold standard of observational designs; concept of study base linking cohort, cross-sectional and case-control designs; and design of observational research to emulate a target randomized trial.Faculty: Jeffrey Martin and Ann Schwartz
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Wachholder, S. Selection of controls in case-control studies. Am J Epidemiol 135:1019 – 1028, 1992. Focus on “Study Base Principle” p. 1021 - 1024. File
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Vandenbroucke JP. Prospective vs retrospective: What's in a name? BMJ 302: 249-250, 1991 File
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Vandenbroucke JP and Pearce N. Case control studies: Basic Concepts. International Journal of Epidemiology 41: 1480-1489, 2012 File
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Hernan MA and Robins JM. Using big data to emulate a randomized trial. American Journal of Epidemiology 183:758-764, 2016 File
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Lecture: Measures of Disease Occurrence I
Prevalence vs. incidence; the three elements in measuring disease incidence; the concept of a rate; cumulative incidence vs. person-time incidence; concepts of survival analysis—failure time and censoring; calculating cumulative incidence—Kaplan Meier and life-table methods; and assumptions for valid estimates of cumulative incidence.
Faculty: Ann Schwartz
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Tapia Granados JA. On the terminology and dimensions of incidence. J Clin Epi 50:891-897, 1997. File
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Kaplan EL and Meier P. Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. J. American Stat. Assoc. 282: 457-481, 1958 File
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Rothman K. Measuring disease occurrence and causal effects. In: Epidemiology: An Introduction. Oxford Press, 2012. pgs:pg 38-56. File
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Rich JT et al. A practical guide to understanding Kaplan-Meier curves. Otolaryngol. Head Neck Surg. 143:331-336, 2010. File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review of prior lecture and problem setFaculty: Stephen Asiimwe, Luis Rodriguez, Michelle Roh, James Salazar, Kristen Aiemjoy, Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Asiimwe MH-2105, Rodriguez MH-2106, Roh MH-2107, Salazar MH-2108, Aiemjoy MH-1107 (Wednesday), Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda
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Lecture: Measures of Disease Occurrence II
Person-time incidence rates; rate is not a proportion; average vs instantaneous incidence rates; person-time based on individual-level vs group-level data; unit of person-time in denominator does not matter; uses of rates; stratified person-time exposure in cohort studies; relationship between incidence rate and cumulative incidence via the exponential formula; use of rates in view of competing events; and the Aalen-Johansen estimator of cumulative incidence.
Faculty: Ann Schwartz
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Satagopan et al. A note on competing risks in survival data analysis. Brit J Cancer 91:1229-1235, 2004. File
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Vandenbroucke JP and Pearce N. Incidence rates in dynamic populations IJE 41: 1472-1479, 2012. File
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Tager, IB. Outcomes in cohort studies. Epidemiol Rev 20:15-28, 1998. File
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Grunkemeier et al. Actual and actuarial probabilities of competing risks: Apples and lemons. Ann Thoracic Surg 83:1586-1592, 2007. File
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Koller et al. Competing risks and the clinical community. Statistics in Medicine 31:1089-1097, 2012. File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review of prior lecture and problem setFaculty: Stephen Asiimwe, Luis Rodriguez, Michelle Roh, James Salazar, Kristen Aiemjoy, Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Asiimwe MH-2105, Rodriguez MH-2106, Roh MH-2107, Salazar MH-2108, Aiemjoy MH-1107 (Wednesday), Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda
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Journal Club
Application of concepts learned in the course to date in the critical dissection of an article in the applied literature
Faculty: Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Kristen Aiemjoy (Wednesday), Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Students will stay in the rooms of their prior small group sections. Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda-
Ondrusova and Ondrus. Epidemiology and treatment delay in testicular cancer patients: a retrospective study. Int Urol Nephrol 40:143-148, 2008 File
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Rothman K. Writing for Epidemiology. Epidemiology 9:333-337, 1998. File
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Gopen GD and Swan JA. The science of scientific writing. American Scientist 78:550-558, 1990. File
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Lecture: Measures of Disease Association I
Measures of association in cross-sectional and cohort studies; 2 x 2 tables; prevalence ratio and prevalence odds ratio; advantages and disadvantages of odds ratios; risk, rate, and hazard ratios; difference vs ratio measures; describing measures of association
Faculty: Ann Schwartz
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Cummings P. The relative merits of risk ratios and odds ratios. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 163:438-445, 2009. File
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Holcomb et al. An odd measure of risk: use and misuse of the odds ratio. Obstet Gynecol 98:685-688, 2001. File
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Cummings P. Methods for estimating adjusted risk ratios. The Stata Journal 9:175-196, 2009. File
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Poole C. On the origin of risk relativism. Epidemiology 21:3-9, 2010. File
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Andersen et al. Competing risks in epidemiology. Internation Journal of Epidemiology 41:861-870, 2012. File
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Bland JM and Altman DG. The logrank test. BMJ 328:1073, 2004. File
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Schwartz et al. Misunderstandings about the effects of race and sex on physicians' referrals for cardiac catheterization. NEJM 341:279 – 283, 1999. File
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Schulman et al. The effect of race and sex on physician's recommendations for cardiac catheterization. NEJM 340:618 – 626, 1999. File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review of prior lecture and problem setFaculty: Stephen Asiimwe, Luis Rodriguez, Michelle Roh, James Salazar, Kristen Aiemjoy, Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Asiimwe MH-2105, Rodriguez MH-2106, Roh MH-2107, Salazar MH-2108, Aiemjoy MH-1107 (Wednesday), Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda
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Lecture: Measures of Disease Association II and Measures of Attribution
Measures of association in a case-control study; equivalence of odds ratio to other measures of association depending on control sampling: case-cohort, incidence density, or prevalent; measures of attribution: attribution among exposed vs attribution in an overall population.
Faculty: Ann Schwartz
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Greenland S and Robins JM. Conceptual problems in the definition and interpretation of attributable fractions. American Journal of Epidemiology 128:1185-1197, 1988. File
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Rockhill B, Newman B, and Weinberg C. Use and misuse of population attributable fractions. American Journal of Public Health 88:15-19, 1998. File
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Rothman KJ and Greenland S. Causation and causal inference in epidemiology. AJPH 95:5145-5150, 2005. File
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Rothman KJ. Causes. Am J Epi 104:587-592, 1976. File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review of prior lecture and problem setFaculty: Stephen Asiimwe, Luis Rodriguez, Michelle Roh, James Salazar, Kristen Aiemjoy, Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Asiimwe MH-2105, Rodriguez MH-2106, Roh MH-2107, Salazar MH-2108, Aiemjoy MH-1107 (Wednesday), Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda
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Journal Club
Application of concepts learned in the course to date in the critical dissection of an article in the applied literature
Faculty: Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Kristen Aiemjoy (Wednesday), Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Students will stay in the rooms of their prior small group sections. Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda-
Grosso et al. Oral bisphosphonates and risk of atrial fibrillation and flutter in women: A self-controlled case-series safety analysis. PLoS ONE 4:e4720, 2009. File
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Lecture: Selection Bias
Internal vs. external validity; definition and classification of bias; distinguishing bias from random error; spotting and minimizing selection bias in descriptive, cross-sectional, case-control, and longitudinal (e.g., cohorts or trials) studies
Faculty: Jeffrey Martin
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Hernán MA, Hernández-Díaz S, Robins JM. A structural approach to selection bias. Epidemiology. 15:615-25, 2004. File
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Robinson et al. Systematic review identifies number of stategies important for retaining study participants. J Clin Epi 60:757-765, 2007. File
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Schwartz S et al. Toward a clarification of the taxonomy of bias in Epidemiology textbooks. Epidemiology 26:216-222, 2015. File
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Cole et al. Illustrating bias due to conditioning on a collider. International Journal of Epidemiology 39:417-420, 2010. File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review of prior lecture and problem setFaculty: Stephen Asiimwe, Luis Rodriguez, Michelle Roh, James Salazar, Kristen Aiemjoy, Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Asiimwe MH-2105, Rodriguez MH-2106, Roh MH-2107, Salazar MH-2108, Aiemjoy MH-1107 (Wednesday), Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda
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Lecture: Understanding Measurement: Aspects of Reproducibility and Validity
Distinguishing reproducibility from validity; how reproducibility influences validity; methods of characterizing reproducibility of measurements (within-subject standard deviation, intraclass correlation coefficient, coefficient of variation); methods of assessment of validity in the presence and absence of gold standards
Faculty: Jeffrey Martin
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Bland and Altman. Measurement error proportional to the mean. BMJ 313:106, 1996. File
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Bland and Altman. Measurement error and correlation coefficients. BMJ 313:41-42, 1996 File
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Bland and Altman. Measurement error. BMJ 313:744, 1996. File
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Mc Dowell and Newell. Measuring Health: A guide to rating scales and questionnaires. Oxford 29-37, 1996. File
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Bland and Altman. Applying the right statistics: analyses of measurement studies. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 22: 85-93, 2003. File
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Bland and Altman. Statistical methods for assessing agreement between two methods of clinical measurement. Lancet 307-310, 1986. File
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Weir, JP. Quantifying test-retest reliability using the intraclass correlation coefficient and the SEM. JSCR 19:231-240, 2005. File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review of prior lecture and problem setFaculty: Stephen Asiimwe, Luis Rodriguez, Michelle Roh, James Salazar, Kristen Aiemjoy, Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Asiimwe MH-2105, Rodriguez MH-2106, Roh MH-2107, Salazar MH-2108, Aiemjoy MH-1107 (Wednesday), Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda
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Journal Club
Application of concepts learned in the course to date in the critical dissection of an article in the applied literature
Faculty: Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Kristen Aiemjoy (Wednesday), Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Students will stay in the rooms of their prior small group sections. Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda-
Lane et al. Wnt signaling antagonists are potential prognostic biomarkers for the progression of radiographic hip osteoarthritis in elderly Caucasian women. Arthritis and Rheumatism 56:3319–3325, 2007. File
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Lecture: Measurement Bias
Differential vs non-differential misclassification; independent vs dependent errors; influence (magnitude and direction of bias) of differential vs. non-differential and independent vs dependent misclassification of exposure, outcome, and confounding variablesFaculty: Jeffrey Martin
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Shahar, E. Causal diagrams for encoding and evaluation of information bias. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 15: 436-440, 2009. File
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Jurek, AM et al. Proper interpretation of non-differential misclassification effects. J Epid 34:680-687, 2005. File
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Berry et al. Impact of misclassification of in vitro fertilization in studies of folic acid and twinning: modelling using population based Swedish vital records. BMJ 1-3, 2004. File
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Hernan and Cole. Causal diagrams and measurement bias. AJE 170:959-962, 2009. File
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Kristensen P. Bias from nondifferential but dependent misclassification of exposure and outcome. Epidemiology 3:210-215, 1992. File
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Fox M et al. Excel spreadsheet calculator from Chapter 6 of Applying Quantitative Bias Analysis to Epidemiologic Data. Springer 2009. File
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Orsini et al. A tool for sensitivity analysis of epi studies Stata Jrnl 8:29-48, 2008. File
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Lash et al. Good practices for quantitative bias analysis Int J Epidemiology 43:1969-1985, 2014. File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review of prior lecture and problem setFaculty: Stephen Asiimwe, Luis Rodriguez, Michelle Roh, James Salazar, Kristen Aiemjoy, Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Asiimwe MH-2105, Rodriguez MH-2106, Roh MH-2107, Salazar MH-2108, Aiemjoy MH-1107 (Wednesday), Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda
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Lecture: Confounding and Interaction I: General Principles
Definition and manifestations of confounding; use of counterfactual model to conceptualize origins of confounding; confounding vs confounders; use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to demonstrate and identify confounding and other bias; nuisance causal pathways; importance of defining the research question and understanding the biological system to prevent confounding
Faculty: Jeffrey Martin
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Jewell, NP. Causal inference and extraneous factors: confounding and interaction. In Statistics for Epidemiology. Chapman and Hall. p. 93-112, 2003. File
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Hernan M. Causal knowledge. AJE 156:176-184, 2002. File
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Cole S, Hernan M. Fallibility in estimating direct effects. IJE 31:163-165, 2002. File
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Greenland Pearl Robins. Causal diagrams for epidemiologic research. Epidemiology 10:37-48,1999. File
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Maldonado G and Greenland S. Estimating causal effects. Int J Epi 31:422-429, 2002. File
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Richiardi L et al. Mediation analysis in epidemiology IJE 42:1511-1519, 2013 File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review of prior lecture and problem setFaculty: Stephen Asiimwe, Luis Rodriguez, Michelle Roh, James Salazar, Kristen Aiemjoy, Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Asiimwe MH-2105, Rodriguez MH-2106, Roh MH-2107, Salazar MH-2108, Aiemjoy MH-1107 (Wednesday), Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda
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Journal Club
Application of concepts learned in the course to date in the critical dissection of an article in the applied literature
Faculty: Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Kristen Aiemjoy (Wednesday), Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Students will stay in the rooms of their prior small group sections. Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda-
Rookus M and van Leeuwen FE. Induced abortion and risk for breast cancer. Reporting (recall) bias in a Dutch case-control stduy. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 88:1759-1764, 1996. File
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Lecture: Confounding and Interaction II: Concepts of Interaction
Strategies to minimize confounding; types of interaction; distinguishing interaction from confounding; assessing for interaction; tests of homogeneity; computer implementation
Faculty: Jeffrey Martin
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
VanderWeele TJ and Robins JM. Four types of effect modification: A classification based on directed acyclic graphs. Epidemiology 18: 561-568, 2007. File
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Knol MJ et al. When one depends on the other: Reporting of interaction. Epidemiology 20:161-166, 2009. File
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Knol MJ and VanderWeele TJ. Recommendations for presenting analyses of effect modification and interaction. International Journal of Epidemiology 41:514-520, 2012. File
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VanderWeele and Knol. Tutorial on interaction. Epidemiol Methods 3:33-72, 2014. File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review of prior lecture and problem set
Faculty: Stephen Asiimwe, Luis Rodriguez, Michelle Roh, James Salazar, Kristen Aiemjoy, Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Asiimwe MH-2105, Rodriguez MH-2106, Roh MH-2107, Salazar MH-2108, Aiemjoy MH-1107 (Wednesday), Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda
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Lecture: Confounding and Interaction III: Stratified Analysis
Concept of weighted averages; use of stratification to form adjusted measures; managing multiple confounding paths; software implementation to detect minimally sufficient set for adjustment; limitations of stratification including time-dependent confounding/mediation
Faculty: Jeffrey Martin
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Shrier I and Platt W. Reducing bias through directed acyclic graphs. BMC Medical Research Methodology 8:70, 2008. File
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Suarez D et al. Differences between marginal structural models and conventional models in their exposure effect estimates. Epidemiology 22: 586-588, 2011. File
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Greenland S and Pearce N Statistical Foundations for Model Based Adjustments Ann Rev Pub Health 2015 File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review of prior lecture and problem setFaculty: Stephen Asiimwe, Luis Rodriguez, Michelle Roh, James Salazar, Kristen Aiemjoy, Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Asiimwe MH-2105, Rodriguez MH-2106, Roh MH-2107, Salazar MH-2108, Aiemjoy MH-1107 (Wednesday), Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda
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Journal Club
Application of concepts learned in the course to date in the critical dissection of an article in the applied literature
Faculty: Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Kristen Aiemjoy (Wednesday), Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Students will stay in the rooms of their prior small group sections. Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda-
Nitz et al. Association of prostaglandin E synthase 2 (PTGES2) Arg298His polymorphism with type 2 diabetes in two German study populations. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism 92:3183–3188, 2007. File
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Lunnetta KL. Genetic association studies. Circulation 118:96-101, 2008. File
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Holliday EG et al. Advanced topics in prognosis: How to use an article about genetic association. JAMA evidence 21.1-431-456, 2009. File
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Journal Club
Application of concepts learned in the course to date in the critical dissection of an article in the applied literature
Faculty: Jeffrey Martin
Location: Mission Hall 1400
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Madsen, et al. A population-based study of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination and autism. NEJM 347-1477-82, 2002 File
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Von Elm et al. The strengthening the reporting of observational studies. Lancet 370-1453-1457, 2007 File
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Vandenbroucke et al. Strenthening the reporting of observational. PLoS Medicine 4-e297, 2007 File
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Yaggi et al. Obstuctive sleep apnea as a risk factor for stroke and death. NEJM 353:2034-41, 2005. File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review of prior lecture and problem setFaculty: Stephen Asiimwe, Luis Rodriguez, Michelle Roh, James Salazar, Kristen Aiemjoy, Trisha Hue, Jeff Martin, Megha Mehrotra, Ann Schwartz, Vivian Avelino-Silva, Aggrey Semeere
Location: Asiimwe MH-2105, Rodriguez MH-2106, Roh MH-2107, Salazar MH-2108, Aiemjoy MH-1107 (Wednesday), Avelino-Silva Online-Brazil, Semeere Online-Uganda
