EPI 204: Clinical Epidemiology (Fall 2016)
Section outline
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EPI 204 Fall 2016 (3 units).
Course Director: Thomas B. Newman, MD, MPH.
Professor, Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Pediatrics.
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Lecture: Course overview, the diagnostic process, and measures of interobserver agreement
Introduction to the course and how we will teach it; how the reason for making a diagnosis affects the optimal classification scheme; concordance, unweighted Kappa, linear and quadratic weighted Kappa
Faculty: Tom Newman
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review of Chapter 1 problems and "Kappa Game"Faculty: Christine Ferrara, Thomas Gaither, Rajkumar Kalapatapu, Kian Niknam, Benjamin Breyer, Joshua Galanter, Tom Newman, Martina Steurer-Mueller,
Location: Ferrara MH-2106, Gaither MH-2107, Kalapatapu MH-2105, Niknam MH-2108 -
Lecture: Dichotomous Tests
Sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, prior and posterior probability; 2x2 table method for getting posterior probability; probability and odds; likelihood ratios, the likelihood ratio slide rule, false-positive and false negative confusion; use of X-graphs to understand testing and treatment thresholdsFaculty: Thomas Newman
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 2 Problems (Epi204 HW2 2012.doc)Faculty: Christine Ferrara, Thomas Gaither, Rajkumar Kalapatapu, Kian Niknam, Benjamin Breyer, Joshua Galanter, Tom Newman, Martina Steurer-Mueller,
Location: Ferrara MH-2106, Gaither MH-2107, Kalapatapu MH-2105, Niknam MH-2108 -
Lecture: Multilevel and continuous tests
ROC Curves, interval likelihood ratios, and the relationship between them; how making multilevel tests dichotomous wastes information; choosing cutoffs, the Walking Man approach to the "non-parametric" ROC curve.Faculty: Thomas Newman
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 3 problems (HW Set 3 Epi 204_2012.doc)Faculty: Christine Ferrara, Thomas Gaither, Rajkumar Kalapatapu, Kian Niknam, Benjamin Breyer, Joshua Galanter, Tom Newman, Martina Steurer-Mueller,
Location: Ferrara MH-2106, Gaither MH-2107, Kalapatapu MH-2105, Niknam MH-2108 -
Lecture: Studies of Diagnostic Tests
Common biases in test accuracy studies: incorporation bias, verification bias, double gold-standard bias, spectrum bias; Prevalence, spectrum bias, and nonindependence; checklist vs systematic approach to critical appraisal of studies of diagnostic testsFaculty: Thomas Newman
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 4 problemsFaculty: Christine Ferrara, Thomas Gaither, Rajkumar Kalapatapu, Kian Niknam, Benjamin Breyer, Joshua Galanter, Tom Newman, Martina Steurer-Mueller,
Location: Ferrara MH-2106, Gaither MH-2107, Kalapatapu MH-2105, Niknam MH-2108 -
Lecture: Screening Tests
Need for a more critical approach for screening tests, risk factor vs disease screening; biases in observational studies of screening: lead time bias, length time bias, volunteer bias, stage migration bias, pseudodisease; randomized trials of screeningFaculty: Martina Steurer-Muller
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 5 problemsFaculty: Christine Ferrara, Thomas Gaither, Rajkumar Kalapatapu, Kian Niknam, Benjamin Breyer, Joshua Galanter, Tom Newman, Martina Steurer-Mueller,
Location: Ferrara MH-2106, Gaither MH-2107, Kalapatapu MH-2105, Niknam MH-2108 -
Lecture: Prognostic tests / Combining Tests
Prognostic Tests: differences from diagnostic tests; calibration and discrimination; comparing predictions; value of prognostic information. Combining tests/diagnostic models: recursive partitioning; logistic regression; importance of validation separate from derivation. (Will cover test non-independence on 10/29.)Faculty: Brett Ley
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 6 problemsFaculty: Christine Ferrara, Thomas Gaither, Rajkumar Kalapatapu, Kian Niknam, Benjamin Breyer, Joshua Galanter, Tom Newman, Martina Steurer-Mueller,
Location: Ferrara MH-2106, Gaither MH-2107, Kalapatapu MH-2105, Niknam MH-2108 -
Lecture: Quantifying the benefits and harms of treatments using RCTS
RCT checklist; importance of baseline incidence; measures of effect size: Relative risk (RR), relative risk reduction (RRR), Odds ratio (OR), Absolute risk reduction (ARR), Number needed to treat (NNT); "Back of the Envelope Cost Effectiveness Analysis"Faculty: Thomas Newman
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 7 & 8 problemsFaculty: Christine Ferrara, Thomas Gaither, Rajkumar Kalapatapu, Kian Niknam, Benjamin Breyer, Joshua Galanter, Tom Newman, Martina Steurer-Mueller,
Location: Ferrara MH-2106, Gaither MH-2107, Kalapatapu MH-2105, Niknam MH-2108 -
Lecture: Alternatives to randomized trials
When randomized trials are and may not be needed; instrumental variables and natural experiments; measuring additional predictor and outcome variables to estimate bias; propensity scores.Faculty: Thomas Newman
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 9 problemsFaculty: Christine Ferrara, Thomas Gaither, Rajkumar Kalapatapu, Kian Niknam, Benjamin Breyer, Joshua Galanter, Tom Newman, Martina Steurer-Mueller,
Location: Ferrara MH-2106, Gaither MH-2107, Kalapatapu MH-2105, Niknam MH-2108 -
Lecture: P-values and confidence intervals
Introduction and justification: why this Bayesian stuff is important and why we think you can handle it; what P-values and confidence intervals don' t mean; what they do mean; confidence intervals for negative studies and for proportions with small numeratorsFaculty: Thomas Newman
Location: Mission Hall 1400 -
Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 10 problemsFaculty: Christine Ferrara, Thomas Gaither, Rajkumar Kalapatapu, Kian Niknam, Benjamin Breyer, Joshua Galanter, Tom Newman, Martina Steurer-Mueller,
Location: Ferrara MH-2106, Gaither MH-2107, Kalapatapu MH-2105, Niknam MH-2108 -
Lecture: Challenges for Evidence-based Diagnosis and Course Review
Criticisms of evidence-based medicine; stories and statistics; psychology of medical decision making: heuristics used to estimate probability. Course review.Faculty: Thomas Newman
Location: Mission Hall 1400-
Rosenbaum 2014 NEJM Invisible risks File
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Newman, TB. The Power of Stories over Statistics.BMJ. 2003;327(7429):1424-7 File
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Newman TB, Maisels, MJ. Less Aggressive Treatment of Neonatal Jaundice and Reports of Kernicterus: Lessons About Practice Guidelines. Pediatrics 2000;105:242 File
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Newman TB, Johnston BD, Grossman DC. Effects and costs of requiring child-restraint systems for young children traveling on commercial airplanes.Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2003 Oct;157(10):969-74 File
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Bishai D. Hearts and Minds and Child Restraints on Airplanes. Arch Peds Adol Med 2003;157:953 File
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Newman TB. Universal Bilirubin Screening, Guidelines and Evidence. Pediatrics 2009 File
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Small Group Discussion Section
Review Chapter 11 problemsFaculty: Christine Ferrara, Thomas Gaither, Rajkumar Kalapatapu, Kian Niknam, Benjamin Breyer, Joshua Galanter, Tom Newman, Martina Steurer-Mueller,
Location: Ferrara MH-2106, Gaither MH-2107, Kalapatapu MH-2105, Niknam MH-2108 -
Lecture: Final Examination Review
Faculty: Thomas NewmanLocation: Mission Hall 1400
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